Trends and Transformations in Higher Education

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Trends and Transformations in Higher Education

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  1. Trends and Transformations in Higher Education

    Slide 1 - Trends and Transformations in Higher Education

    • Anoop Gupta
    • Distinguished Scientist
    • Microsoft
    • anoop@microsoft.com
    • Educause, October 16th, 2013
  2. Kids in high-school or college?.

    Slide 2 - Kids in high-school or college?.

  3. Challenges and Opportunities

    Slide 3 - Challenges and Opportunities

    • Looking to the Future
    • Transformations Underway
  4. The Perfect Storm

    Slide 4 - The Perfect Storm

  5. Ubiquitous, affordable devices and connectivity

    Slide 5 - Ubiquitous, affordable devices and connectivity

  6. Source: Mary Meeker Internet Trends, May 2013

    Slide 6 - Source: Mary Meeker Internet Trends, May 2013

  7. STEM&

    Slide 7 - STEM&

    • Stylus
  8. A generation of digital natives

    Slide 8 - A generation of digital natives

  9. Slide 9

    • Intellectually, kids used to grow up in the dark. School was their enlightenment. Today, our kids grow up in the light. And school has become the place that de-enlightens them
    • Marc Prensky
    • Turning on the Lights: Education Leadership
  10.              A rapidly flattening world

    Slide 10 - A rapidly flattening world

  11. Economic pressures for students, institutions, and governments

    Slide 11 - Economic pressures for students, institutions, and governments

  12. Slide 12

    • Tuition Fees – Creating a Bubble?
    • Index: 100-1979
    • Tuition
    • Housing
    • 1980
    • 1985
    • 1990
    • 1995
    • 2000
    • 2005
    • 2010
    • 0
    • 200
    • 400
    • 600
    • 800
    • 1,000
    • 1,200
    • “I can’t really afford it, but buying a house is a great investment and will pay itself off in just a few years”
    • “My house stopped going up in value and I still haven’t paid off my mortgage”
    • “I can’t really afford it, but going to college will land me a great job and I’ll be able to pay off all my loans”
    • $914B Student loans outstanding ($25K per graduating student).
    • Bigger than credit card ($627B) and auto loans ($750B).
  13. North Carolina

    Slide 13 - North Carolina

    • Maryland
    • Indiana
    • Texas
    • Nebraska
    • North Dakota
    • Wyoming
    • Alaska
    • Illinois
    • Minnesota
    • Pennsylvania
    • Oregon
    • New Mexico
    • Michigan
    • Massachusetts
    • South Carolina
    • Washington
    • Nevada
    • California
    • Florida
    • Alabama
    • Louisiana
    • New Hampshire
    • Arizona
    • Arkansas
    • Montana
    • New York
    • Maine
    • West Virginia
    • Vermont
    • South Dakota
    • Wisconsin
    • Georgia
    • Hawaii
    • Connecticut
    • New Jersey
    • Utah
    • Kansas
    • Missouri
    • Virginia
    • Iowa
    • Kentucky
    • Oklahoma
    • Ohio
    • Delaware
    • Tennessee
    • Mississippi
    • Idaho
    • Rhode Island
    • Colorado
    • 0
    • -20
    • -40
    • 40
    • 20
    • Five-Year (2008-2013) Percent Changes in State Fiscal Support for Higher Education
    • Percent change
    • Source: Grapevine Study | Center for the Study of Education Policy
  14. Large universities comprising many affiliated colleges

    Slide 14 - Large universities comprising many affiliated colleges

    • Synched curriculum
    • Single shared exam
    • Little autonomy for teachers
    • A few high quality colleges, long tail
    • Colleges: ~4700
    • Faculty : ~50,000
    • Students: ~4,000,000
    • ~230 colleges
    • ~540 colleges
    • ~850colleges
    • Scale and structure of undergraduate engineering in India(outside IITs, NITs, BITS, etc.)
  15. http://www.asee.org/papers-and-publications/publications/college-profiles/2011-profile-engineering-statistics.pdf

    Slide 15 - http://www.asee.org/papers-and-publications/publications/college-profiles/2011-profile-engineering-statistics.pdf

  16. Disconnect in value-proposition

    Slide 16 - Disconnect in value-proposition

  17. Education to employment is headline news across the world

    Slide 17 - Education to employment is headline news across the world

    • For this generation of young people, the future looks bleak.
    • – NY Times, 2012
    • Young people that are neither in employment nor in education have become a serious concern for policy-makers, in particular in developed economies.
    • – ILO, 2012
    • We are witnessing a young generation frustrated by the chronic mismatch between skills and work.
    • – UNESCO, 2012
    • “I trained for a world that doesn't exist”
    • – Economist, 2011
    • The best predictor of future unemployment, research shows, is previous unemployment.
    • – Economist, 2011
    • Across developed and emerging economies, the young are being left behind as never before. And once a gap emerges, it tends to be persistent and difficult to close.
    • – Financial times, 2012
  18. Value of Higher Education in Decline?

    Slide 18 - Value of Higher Education in Decline?

    • 45%
    • Providers
    • 72%
    • 42%
    • Employers
    • Youth
    • Agreement that graduates are adequately prepared
    • Source: McKinsey, Sept 2012
  19. Growth in Non-Traditional Students

    Slide 19 - Growth in Non-Traditional Students

  20. In 2008, more than one third of undergraduate students were over the age of 25, nearly 25% were parents and half of those parents were single parents. In addition, non-traditional student enrollment has been trending upwards recently, which some observers attribute to the economic downturn.

    Slide 20 - In 2008, more than one third of undergraduate students were over the age of 25, nearly 25% were parents and half of those parents were single parents. In addition, non-traditional student enrollment has been trending upwards recently, which some observers attribute to the economic downturn.

    • The NCES divides tertiary educational institutions into three categories: public, private-non-profit, and private-for-profit (PFP). With regard to the age demographic of students enrolled in these institutions, the NCES uses three age categories: under 25, between 25 and 34, and 35 and older. According to its most recent publication,in a section called The Condition of Education 2013," most non-traditional students are enrolled in PFP’s. In fact, for the fall enrollment in 2011, in four-year PFP institutions 71% full-time and 78% part-time students were at least 25 years old or older. In two-year PFP institutions, 52% full-time and 61% part-time students were also included in this "non-traditional" category. (http://nces.edu.gov)
    • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-traditional_student
    • Non-traditional students
  21. WSJ: 10/8/2013: An early report card on MOOCs

    Slide 21 - WSJ: 10/8/2013: An early report card on MOOCs

  22. Slide 22

    • Cost matters everywhere, but value, lack of interest, and capacity also play a role in certain countries
    • Why did you not enroll in post-secondary education or training?
    • Cost / need to work
    • Cost + value
    • Cost + lack of interest
    • Cost + capacity
    • Reasons
    • United States
    • Brazil
    • Mexico
    • Turkey
    • India
    • United Kingdom
    • Saudi Arabia
    • Morocco
    • Germany
    • Overall
    • Could not afford
    • No time to study due to work
    • Not interested in more education
    • Did not think it would add value
    • No program for interests
    • Insufficient capacity
    • No offerings in area
    • Not accepted to program of choice
    • Salary won't change
    • Family did not allow
    • Can get employment otherwise
    • 48%
    • 43%
    • 24%
    • 20%
    • 18%
    • 38%
    • 35%
    • 34%
    • 17%
    • 31%
    • 16%
    • 25%
    • 29%
    • 21%
    • 10%
    • 16%
    • 18%
    • 21%
    • 19%
    • 20%
    • 11%
    • 4%
    • 5%
    • 15%
    • 16%
    • 41%
    • 24%
    • 27%
    • 7%
    • 15%
    • 13%
    • 10%
    • 8%
    • 21%
    • 21%
    • 22%
    • 13%
    • 11%
    • 7%
    • 13%
    • 11%
    • 16%
    • 10%
    • 13%
    • 7%
    • 15%
    • 12%
    • 8%
    • 12%
    • 12%
    • 5%
    • 12%
    • 8%
    • 11%
    • 14%
    • 8%
    • 9%
    • 6%
    • 25%
    • 11%
    • 12%
    • 5%
    • 14%
    • 9%
    • 8%
    • 17%
    • 10%
    • 10%
    • 12%
    • 11%
    • 6%
    • 3%
    • 10%
    • 11%
    • 14%
    • 26%
    • 10%
    • 5%
    • 10%
    • 10%
    • 7%
    • 5%
    • 6%
    • 20%
    • 5%
    • 10%
    • 10%
    • 0%
    • 10%
    • 8%
    • 7%
    • 3%
    • 5%
    • 11%
    • 14%
    • 13%
    • 8%
    • 4%
    • 7%
    • 7%
    • 6%
    • 2%
    • 6%
    • 8%
    • 5%
    • 10%
    • 9%
    • 2%
    • 7%
    • 6%
    • Unfavorable
    • Favorable
  23. Slide 23

    • Ways of thinking
    • Ways of working
    • Tools for working
    • Ways of living in the world
  24. Actionable pedagogical insights

    Slide 24 - Actionable pedagogical insights

  25. Lecturer quality, class size, institution,...doesn't matter!

    Slide 25 - Lecturer quality, class size, institution,...doesn't matter!

    • Similar data on higher level courses.
    • R. Hake, ”…A six-thousand-student survey…” AJP 66, 64-74 (‘98).
    • Talk by Carl Wieman.
    • Improving Outcomes in the Classroom
    • Fraction of unknown basic concepts learned
    • Average learned/course
    • 16 traditional Lecture
    • courses
    • Force Concept Inventory- 1st semester physics
    • On average, students learn <30% of concepts they did not already know.
    • new research
    • driven approaches
  26.   Actively engage students and guide their learning.

    Slide 26 - Actively engage students and guide their learning.

    • Know where students are starting from.
    • Get actively processing ideas, then probe and guide thinking (classroom).
    • Build further with extended “effortful practice” focusing on developing expert-thinking and skills. (homework- authentic problems, useful feedback)
    • (Required to develop long term memory)
    • Effective teaching = get them thinking, then monitor and guide thinking.
    • Research guided pedagogy
  27. Technology that can help. (when used properly)

    Slide 27 - Technology that can help. (when used properly)

    • examples:
    • a. Interactive lecture (students discussing & answering questions) supported by personal response system--“clickers”
    • b. interactive simulations
    • Mentally engaging, monitoring, & guiding thinking.
    • 5-200 students at a time?!
    • Reference: “Why Note Try a Scientific Approach to Science Education?”, Carl Weiman, From Change Magazine, September-October 2007. http://www.changemag.org/Archives/Back%20Issues/September-October%202007/full-scientific-approach.html
  28. Traditional model

    Slide 28 - Traditional model

    • Transformation
    • Lightweight digital devices
    • Heavy backpacks
    • Teacher lecturing
    • Flipped classrooms
    • Static textbooks
    • Engaging and interactive
    • courseware
    • Learning in lock-step
    • Personalized, mastery
    • learning
    • Learning is collaborative
    • and social
    • Learning is solo sport
    • Infrequent high-stress
    • assessments
    • Continuous low-stress
    • feedback / assessment
    • Digital transformation of education
    • 2
  29. IT innovations (web, video, cloud, social, analytics …)

    Slide 29 - IT innovations (web, video, cloud, social, analytics …)

  30. Feedback Loops for Continuous Improvement.

    Slide 30 - Feedback Loops for Continuous Improvement.

    • EdX 6.002 MOOC: 230 million interactions recorded from single course instance.
    • That has never been possible before in education.
    • Killer Ability of Digital
    • Student Learning Data
    • Instructor Activities
    • Course Design
    • Student Performance
    • Science of Learning
  31. Feedback Loops for Continuous Improvement.

    Slide 31 - Feedback Loops for Continuous Improvement.

    • EdX 6.002 MOOC: 230 million interactions recorded from single course instance.
    • That has never been possible before in education.
    • Killer Ability of Digital
    • Ogi Ogas and Sai Gaddam
    • Student Learning Data
    • Instructor Activities
    • Course Design
    • Student Performance
    • Science of Learning
  32. The Opportunity  Quality education, for everyone, everywhere, affordably

    Slide 32 - The Opportunity Quality education, for everyone, everywhere, affordably

    • Thomas Friedman: “Big breakthroughs happen when what is suddenly possible meets what is desperately necessary”
  33. Challenges and Opportunities

    Slide 33 - Challenges and Opportunities

    • Looking to the Future
    • Transformations Underway
  34. Slide 34

    • Three broad facets:
    • Technology enabling new pedagogies
    • Technology enabling creation of rich interactive content
    • Technology enabling:
    • authoring, reading, note-taking, collaboration, classroom interactions.
    • course and student management, administration tasks
    • data management and analytics
    • All three aspects are important and complementary
    • The Role of Technology
  35. The Student Advantage: Office 365 ProPlus

    Slide 35 - The Student Advantage: Office 365 ProPlus

    • Office as a Service
    • Use Across Devices
    • Office on Demand
    • Click To Run
    • Save to Cloud
    • Upgrades Included
    • Familiar & full Office applications -locally installed, available offline
  36. The Student Advantage: Office 365 ProPlus

    Slide 36 - The Student Advantage: Office 365 ProPlus

    • Transform ideas into professional-looking documents
    • Manager your schedule and tasks with colleagues
    • Achieve valuable insights with powerful analysis tools
    • Turn your ideas into impactful presentations
    • Collect your information in one easy-to-find place
    • Communicate and collaborate easily with colleagues in different locations
    • Create professional-quality publications and marketing materials
    • Track and report important information
  37. Note-taking within OneNote.

    Slide 37 - Note-taking within OneNote.

    • Student slate projectableon front white board.
    • Full-screen note-taking.
    • Live in-class quizzes.
    • Teacher slate and whiteboard are connected.
    • White board broadcast to all students.
    • StudentExperiences.
  38. Emergence of MOOCs

    Slide 39 - Emergence of MOOCs

    • Very rapid growth and adoption (McKinsey slide)
    • Often more students with certificates in a single year than in history of that institution
    • The report cards looks decent (WSJ report)
    • Every country / state looking for a solution / platform. For many countries there is no other alternative, though the needs are often different (MEC study)
    • The need is just as much for corporate learning, vocational learning, short consumer topics.
  39. Emergence of MOOCs

    Slide 40 - Emergence of MOOCs

    • 1 out of 8 courses
    • 1 out of 3 students
    • ~4 million students
    • 370 courses from
    • 69 universities
    • is now available in an online form through MOOCs
    • is taking at least 1 online course
    • are available through Coursera
    • used Coursera, Udacity, and EdX last year
    • An at-scale digital course library is emerging
    • Students have a growing propensity to take courses online
    • Network effects are coming to higher education
    • Unbundling has come to the educational space
    • SOURCE: The Sloan Consortium, “Changing Course: Ten Years of Tracking Online Education in the United States”, 2013; Coursera.org; Udacity.com; edX.org; (Courtesy McKinsey)
  40. From: Mary Meeker Internet Trends, May 2013

    Slide 41 - From: Mary Meeker Internet Trends, May 2013

  41. From: Mary Meeker Internet Trends, May 2013

    Slide 42 - From: Mary Meeker Internet Trends, May 2013

    • Technology Adoption Phases
    • Phase-1: digital version of non-digital process
    • Phase-2: value-added features appear in digital version
    • Phase-3: process re-design
  42. From: Mary Meeker Internet Trends, May 2013

    Slide 43 - From: Mary Meeker Internet Trends, May 2013

  43. From: Mary Meeker Internet Trends, May 2013

    Slide 44 - From: Mary Meeker Internet Trends, May 2013

  44. MOOCs: Report Card (WSJ)

    Slide 45 - MOOCs: Report Card (WSJ)

    • Source: WSJ 10/8/2013: An early report card on MOOCs, by Geoffrey A. Fowler
  45. MOOCs: Report Card (WSJ)

    Slide 46 - MOOCs: Report Card (WSJ)

    • Source: WSJ 10/8/2013: An early report card on MOOCs, by Geoffrey A. Fowler
  46. MOOCs for Industry-Ready Skills

    Slide 47 - MOOCs for Industry-Ready Skills

    • Microsoft Learning
    • Responsible for training and certifying Microsoft technologists worldwide
    • Millions of learners annually
    • Ecosystem of 3400 partners globally
    • Leveraging MOOC-like methods
    • Driving to shape badging standards
    • Microsoft’s own MOOCs
    • Microsoft Virtual Academy
    • IT Academy
    • Massively Empowered Classrooms (MS Research, India)
  47. Microsoft Virtual Academy

    Slide 48 - Microsoft Virtual Academy

    • http://microsoftvirtualacademy.com
    • Free for anyone in the world
    • 100s of courses, 12 languages
    • 1.25+ million learners
    • Training delivered by Microsoft experts and MVPs
    • Comparable course-completion rates to other MOOCs
  48. IT Academy

    Slide 49 - IT Academy

    • http://www.itacademy.Microsoft.com
    • ~2000 courses on core IT skills
    • For members of the Microsoft’s IT Academy program – 18000 schools and colleges worldwide
    • Millions of students
    • Microsoft technology training – video-based courses as well as traditional eLearning
  49. MEC: Massively Empowered Classrooms

    Slide 50 - MEC: Massively Empowered Classrooms

    • Enhancing Technical Education in India
    • Microsoft Research (India)
  50. Challenges for Engineering Education in India

    Slide 51 - Challenges for Engineering Education in India

    • Scale is huge. Critical shortage of qualified teachers.
    • Uninspired students with little interest in subject mastery, optimizing for test results.
    • Industry has given up on universities – they hire based on “raw smarts” and train on own curriculum for 6+ months.
  51. Large universities comprising many affiliated colleges

    Slide 52 - Large universities comprising many affiliated colleges

    • Synched curriculum
    • Single shared exam
    • Little autonomy for teachers
    • A few high quality colleges, LONG tail
    • Colleges: ~4700
    • Faculty : ~50,000
    • Students: ~4,000,000
    • ~230 colleges
    • ~540 colleges
    • ~850colleges
    • Scale and structure of undergraduate engineering in India(outside IITs, NITs, BITS, etc.)
  52. Very little use of MOOCs – adults and top 0.1% of students

    Slide 53 - Very little use of MOOCs – adults and top 0.1% of students

    • Syllabus different from college classes
    • Not directly relevant for exams
    • No perception of utility for getting jobs
    • Little awareness among faculty or students
    • Bandwidth constraints – video streaming difficult
    • Content, Incentives, Awareness, Infrastructure
  53. What is MEC?

    Slide 54 - What is MEC?

    • Intended as “21st century textbook,” NOT standalone class.
    • Central core curriculum is pushed out to all affiliates, but each college can supplement/customize content.
    • Easy authoring of supplemental material and quizzes with community-authored question bank.
    • Student analytics available to teachers, scoped to college.
    • Offline/downloadable content for low bandwidth uses.
  54. MEC: Lessons from the 1st pilot?

    Slide 55 - MEC: Lessons from the 1st pilot?

    • Adequate bandwidth is a pervasive issue. Offline a must.
    • Quality content not enough for student engagement. Need external stimulii such as competitions and social media.
    • Local faculty are difficult to engage – conservative and limited motivation.
    • Plagiarism.
  55. MEC: What have we learned the from 1st pilot?

    Slide 56 - MEC: What have we learned the from 1st pilot?

    • Bandwidth
    • Every college claimed to have broadband internet. But we couldn’t consistently stream video in any college we visited.
    • MEC students identified offline video as #1 feature request.
  56. MEC: What have we learned the from 1st pilot?

    Slide 57 - MEC: What have we learned the from 1st pilot?

    • Incentives
    • Quality content not sufficient to keep students engaged.
    • Students respond to immediate rewards and external venues: Contests, Facebook, etc.
    • Hire a social media coordinator to manage student FB engagement. Include group competitions.
  57. MEC: What have we learned the from 1st pilot?

    Slide 58 - MEC: What have we learned the from 1st pilot?

    • Faculty are difficult to engage
    • College teachers are very conservative and reluctant to explore any novelty in teaching.
    • Encouraging blended learning techniques is extremely difficult. Few teachers even view any videos themselves!
    • Don’t depend on teachers to carry intervention. Most motivation for class comes from students.
  58. MEC: What have we learned the from 1st pilot?

    Slide 59 - MEC: What have we learned the from 1st pilot?

    • Plagiarism
    • Most students copied answers for online quizzes
    • We created a very difficult question in one online quiz, almost all students got it right.
    • Created a variant of the same question for (offline) final exam. Less than 3% got it right.
  59. MEC: Pilot-2

    Slide 60 - MEC: Pilot-2

    • Change is hard – many stakeholders need to be aligned.
    • Continue focus on change from within the system. In particular, focus on generating faculty engagement.
  60. Other Microsoft Research Efforts

    Slide 61 - Other Microsoft Research Efforts

    • Low-cost low-tech classroom polling.
    • VidiWiki for lesson translation.
    • Auto-augmenting textbooks with educational videos.
    • Automated problem-generation and grading in math, logic.
    • Automated question generation from Wikipedia articles.
    • Automated grading short answer questions.
    • Ubiquitous language learning.
  61. Challenges and Opportunities

    Slide 62 - Challenges and Opportunities

    • Looking to the Future
    • Transformations Underway
  62. But still early days, and many questions remain

    Slide 63 - But still early days, and many questions remain

    • Role of local faculty
    • Motivating students who are not self-driven
    • Is the MOOC just a media-rich eBook.
    • Who owns the courses
    • Who owns the data and how does it work as students courses span providers
    • Modularity of content and courses
    • Interoperability and reuse potential of content (lectures, labs, videos, ….) and courses
    • Ability to contextualize and personalize content and courses
    • Plagiarism
    • Long-term costs and operation of MOOCs
    • Tools / Technologies to provide immediate, intelligent feedback at low-cost
    • Copyright and DRM issues
    • Separation of credentialing from authors or platform-providers for MOOCs
    • Business models
  63. Many Questions Remain  … A Journey

    Slide 64 - Many Questions Remain … A Journey

    • Interoperability and reuse potential of content?
    • Separation of credentialing from MOOC authors or platform-providers of MOOCs?
    • Who owns the data and how does it work as students’ courses span providers?
    • Motivating local faculty?
    • Long-term costs and operations of MOOCs?
    • Modularity of content and courses?
    • How do we motivate students whoare not self-driven?
    • Are MOOCs just media-rich eBooks?
    • Tools to contextualize and personalize rich-media content?
  64. A Vision for the Future

    Slide 65 - A Vision for the Future

    • Competency-based learning and meaningful credentials, yet personalized pathways.
    • Coaches/faculty play a strong role to motivate and guide students towards learning goals.
    • Modular content pieces from variety of providers that are easily mashed-up:
    • Topical short multi-media lesson content pieces
    • Banks of quizzes and interactive exercises
    • Rich simulations/labs that engage and immerse students
    • Powerful authoring and composition tools that allows coaches/faculty to create mash-ups using existing content and extended with their own contextual knowledge.
    • Standards and protocols so analytics flow to the instructor regardless first-party or third-party content.
    • Rich underlying platform for collaboration, tutoring, credentialing, commerce, that also integrates with existing LMSs and in-classroom work.
    • Students own their work in a personal lifelong portfolio.
  65. Slide 66

    • Empowered local faculty
    • Modular content with clear rights
    • Powerful authoring and composition tools for mash-ups
    • Non-siloed analytics for faculty and students
    • Embedded social and collaboration that keeps students motivated
    • Personalized learning and credentials that make a difference
    • Looking to the Future
  66. Thank you.

    Slide 67 - Thank you.