Arun Jain - New Methods in Planning for Uncertaint & Risk in Urban Settings. KlimatGIS Stockholm Jan 2015 (web)

This presentation is an shortened version of a keynote delivered at the KLIMATGIS conference in Stockholm, Sweden Jan. 20, 2015. It shows how GIS methodologies can act as better decision support tools to help us understand, explain and collaboratively plan for a complex world. In many instances such methodologies work better than simulation models which tend to be "black box" in nature. Unfortunately, the results of these simulations are often confused as predictions. Methodologies such as the one described here are intended (and needed) to help us better comprehend complexity, and more creatively adaptive to the risks and uncertainties associated with thinking and planning for the future. This presentation has 5 parts: 1. Uncertainty and Risk, 2. Complexity, 3. "Decision Space", 4. DMAT (Development Management Assessment Tool", & 5. The Big Picture. An audio version of this presentation is planned. Comments and inquires for more examples and related details are welcome.

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Arun Jain - New Methods in Planning for Uncertaint & Risk in Urban Settings. KlimatGIS Stockholm Jan 2015 (web)

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This presentation is an shortened version of a keynote delivered at the KLIMATGIS conference in Stockholm, Sweden Jan. 20, 2015. It shows how GIS methodologies can act as better decision support tools to help us understand, explain and collaboratively plan for a complex world. In many instances such methodologies work better than simulation models which tend to be "black box" in nature. Unfortunately, the results of these simulations are often confused as predictions. Methodologies such as the one described here are intended (and needed) to help us better comprehend complexity, and more creatively adaptive to the risks and uncertainties associated with thinking and planning for the future. This presentation has 5 parts: 1. Uncertainty and Risk, 2. Complexity, 3. "Decision Space", 4. DMAT (Development Management Assessment Tool", & 5. The Big Picture. An audio version of this presentation is planned. Comments and inquires for more examples and related details are welcome.
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Slide Content
  1. Arun Jain, Urban Designer, Urban Strategist

    Slide 1 - Arun Jain, Urban Designer, Urban Strategist

    • info@urbdesign.net
    • KLIMATGIS – Dagen 2015New Methods in Planning for Uncertainty & Risk in Urban SettingsA GIS based decision support methodologyJanuary 20, 2015 Stockholm, Sweden
  2. 1

    Slide 2 - 1

    • Uncertainty & Risk
  3. Slide 3

    • Uncertainty
  4. The quality of your life is in direct proportion to the amount of uncertainty you can comfortably deal with…

    Slide 4 - The quality of your life is in direct proportion to the amount of uncertainty you can comfortably deal with…

    • Anthony Robbins
    • Uncertainty
  5. The potential of losing something of value.

    Slide 5 - The potential of losing something of value.

    • Risk is an intentional interaction with uncertainty.
    • Risk perception is the subjective judgment people make about the severity and/or probability of a risk.
    • Risk
  6. We can be uncertain about an outcome, but unless we have a personal stake in it, we may not be taking any risk

    Slide 6 - We can be uncertain about an outcome, but unless we have a personal stake in it, we may not be taking any risk

    • Douglas Hubbard
    • Risk vs. Uncertainty
  7. The limits of (simulation) models

    Slide 7 - The limits of (simulation) models

    • Portland Metro vs. Oregon State
    • What conditions are we planning for?
  8. Avoiding the “ostrich trap”

    Slide 8 - Avoiding the “ostrich trap”

    • What is much more sensible, is to say, "Well, this is what I think now, but I am going to come back and look at this again and again. If, as the future comes nearer, I find my predictions were wrong, I am going to change what I did.
    • Not only that, I am going to design my decision in ways which allow me to change easily."
    • Guy Burgess
    • Co-Director, Conflict Research Consortium University of Colorado, Boulder
  9. 2

    Slide 9 - 2

    • Complexity
  10. The nature of problems

    Slide 10 - The nature of problems

    • Well Mannered
    • Easy definition
    • Clear & clean solutions
    • Tame
    • Poorly defined, benign solutions
    • Wicked
    • Difficult to understand
    • No easy or unique solutions
    • HORST RITTEL
  11. Complexity

    Slide 11 - Complexity

    • As the external environment becomes more complex, systems also need to become more complex to prosper.
    • W. R. Ashby (Introduction to Cybernetics) 1956
  12. Slide 12

    • Data information knowledge…
    • Too much emphasis on data and information
    • Wisdom requires time & experience
    • Data
    • Information
    • Knowledge
    • Wisdom
    • Knowledge
    • Understanding
    • RAW
    • (Red, 192.234.235.245.678 v2.0)
    • MEANING
    • The pedestrian walk sign countdown suggests the traffic light I am driving towards will turn yellow in 4 seconds
    • CONTEXT
    • The traffic light will turn red very soon
    • APPLIED
    • I better speed up and clear the intersection, or stop the car!
  13. Slide 13

    • Planning as process
    • Decision theory
    • “Satisficing” (Herbert Simon ‘45-’69)
    • Limits of individual & social rationality
    • “Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning” (Horst Rittel ‘73)
    • Transactive or inclusive planning (Friedman ’73)
    • Synoptic or Systems Thinking (model based ends & means)
    • Incrementalism (Charles Lindblom ‘84-)
    • Advocacy Planning (Paul Davidoff ‘69)
    • Citizen Participation (Arnstein ‘69)
    • Planning as a social & political act that is not value neutral (Altshuler ‘65, Rabinovitz ‘69)
    • Planning today
    • Planning as an “apolitical” act designed to protect public interest
    • Introduction of social sciences & evaluation of the role of planning
    • “The Production of Space”, (Henri Lefebvre ‘74, ‘91)
    • “Theory of Communicative Action” (Jurgen Habermas ‘81)
    • “Disabling Professions”, “Tools for Conviviality” (Ivan Illych ‘73)
    • “Beyond the Stable State” (D. Schon ‘73)
    • “The Reflective Practitioner” (D. Schon ‘83)
    • “Rise of the Network Society” (Manuel Castells ‘96)
    • “Global City” (Saskia Sassen ‘91, ‘01)
    • Declining relationship between theory and practice
    • Advocacy Planning
    • Participatory Planning
    • Models
    • Planning Theory
    • +
    • +
    • Planning Practice
    • vs.
    • ?
  14. Meta challenges

    Slide 14 - Meta challenges

    • Indefinite growth may not be possible
    • Costs and global contraction?
    • Declining resources
    • If we plan it, will it happen?
    • If we build it, will they come?
    • Can we implement everything we want?
  15. 3

    Slide 15 - 3

    • “Decision Space”
  16. Focusing dialogue

    Slide 16 - Focusing dialogue

    • DECISION SPACE
    • Competing interests take over
    • Core issues hijacked
    • Political agendas dominate
  17. Identifying the “Decision Space”

    Slide 17 - Identifying the “Decision Space”

    • Political agendas dominate
    • Competing interests take over
    • Core issues hijacked
    • DECISION SPACE
    • This means:
    • Contextualizing raw data into knowledge
    • Mapping that knowledge spatially
    • Identifying what’s fixed & what’s flexible (i.e. the “playing field”)
    • This is a comprehensive understanding of the space in which the problem sits
    • It is not a physical territory
  18. Understanding the “Decision Space”

    Slide 18 - Understanding the “Decision Space”

    • CORE ISSUES
    • Better collective understanding
    • Ability to stay focused
    • Improved mutual trust (open process)
    • Understanding this “space” helps everyone comprehend & stay focused on where creativity, innovation and positive change are most needed.
    • DECISION SPACE
    • This is a comprehensive understanding of the space in which the problem sits
    • It is not a physical territory
  19. Slide 19

    • Methodology
    • SOILS
    • WETLANDS
    • VISUAL & SCENIC
    • GEOLOGY & SEISMIC
    • BIOLOGICAL (PLANT & ANIMAL)
    • DRAINAGE/FLOODING/WATER QUALITY
    • NATURAL
    • OPPORTUNITIES
    • &
    • CONSTRAINTS
    • MAN-MADE
    • ASSUMPTIONS
    • WEIGHTED CRITERIA
    • CONTEXT
    • LAND USE
    • ZONING
    • UTILITIES
    • LIGHT
    • NOISE
    • TRAFFIC & CIRCULATION
    • HISTORICAL
    • AIR QUALITY
    • ARCHEOLOGICAL
    • MAGNETIC & EMF
    • LOCATION
    • DESCRIPTION
    • HISTORY
    • IMAGE
    • CULTURAL
    • ECONOMY
    • DEMOGRAPHY
    • PUBLIC SERVICES
    • AESTHETICS
    • NEEDS
    • DEVELOPMENTTHRESHOLDS
    • SYNTHESIS
    • SELECTION
    • ELABORATION
    • SUITABILITY
    • ANALYSIS
    • SOCIAL ▪
    • ECONOMIC ▪
    • ENVIRONMENTAL ▪
    • POLITICAL ▪
    • CRITERIA ▪
    • DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES ▪
    • MASTER PLANNING ▪
    • DESIGN GUIDELINES ▪
    • POLICY & REGULATORY FRAMEWORKS ▪
    • IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGIES ▪
    • ALTERNATIVES
  20. 4

    Slide 20 - 4

    • DMAT
    • “Development Management Assessment Tool”
  21. Total Land Area = 324,319 Acres

    Slide 21 - Total Land Area = 324,319 Acres

    • MNCPPC
    • Montgomery County, Maryland
  22. Slide 22

    • Direct its limited resources better
    • Be contemporary in its use of data
    • Better understand development options & priorities
    • Be more market sensitive
    • Improve its ability to deliver services & directives
    • The planning problem
    • The Commission would like to
    • Maryland National Capital Parks & Planning Commission
    • Montgomery County, Maryland (Washington DC Metro Area)
  23. Motivation

    Slide 23 - Motivation

    • The planning problem
    • Create a better basis for where and when planning should happen
    • Ensure a comprehensive & more objective basis for our work program & scopes of work
    • Setting & refining county-wide priorities
    • Informing & prioritizing master plan amendments
    • Maryland National Capital Parks & Planning Commission
  24. Slide 24

    • Planning hierarchy
    • Forecasting
    • GENERAL PLAN
    • Master Plans
    • Local Area Plans
    • Growth Management (+ CIP)
    • Regulatory Review
    • Zoning Ordinance
    • Standards
    • Guidelines
    • Policies
    • Functional Plans
    • Existing
    • Periodic
    • Ongoing
    • Maryland National Capital Parks & Planning Commission
  25. Slide 25

    • Forecasting
    • GENERAL
    • PLAN
    • Master Plans
    • Local Area Plans
    • Growth Management
    • (+ CIP)
    • Regulatory Review
    • Zoning Ordinance
    • Standards
    • Guidelines
    • Policies
    • Existing
    • Periodic
    • Ongoing
    • GIS
    • Current tools
    • Current tools
    • Feasibility Analysis
    • Market Analysis
    • Modeling
    • Inventories
    • MNCPPC
  26. Manage the Commission’s planning program

    Slide 26 - Manage the Commission’s planning program

    • Better basis for work program/scopes of work
    • Setting & refining county-wide priorities
    • Informing & prioritizing master plans
    • Understand larger trends
    • Identify existing conditions/trends/future potential
    • Understand existing/future capacity (what’s fixed)
    • Direct action better
    • Managing evolving growth conditions
    • Develop basis for environmental sensitivity
    • Better basis for strategic choices/incentives
    • A strategic tool that helps…
    • MNCPPC
  27. Forecasting

    Slide 27 - Forecasting

    • GENERAL
    • PLAN
    • Master Plans
    • Local Area Plans
    • Growth Management
    • (+ CIP)
    • Regulatory Review
    • Zoning Ordinance
    • Standards
    • Guidelines
    • Policies
    • Existing
    • Periodic
    • Ongoing
    • GIS
    • A strategic tool that helps…
    • Manage the planning program
    • Understand larger trends
    • Direct better action
    • A tool for strategic thinking
    • Current tools
    • Feasibility Analysis
    • Market Analysis
    • Modeling
    • Inventories
    • MNCPPC
  28. Forecasting

    Slide 28 - Forecasting

    • GENERAL
    • PLAN
    • Master Plans
    • Local Area Plans
    • Growth Management
    • (+ CIP)
    • Regulatory Review
    • Zoning Ordinance
    • Standards
    • Guidelines
    • Policies
    • Existing
    • Periodic
    • Ongoing
    • GIS
    • Development Management Assessment tool (DMAT)
    • A tool for strategic thinking
    • Current tools
    • Feasibility Analysis
    • Market Analysis
    • Modeling
    • Inventories
    • MNCPPC
  29. Slide 29

    • Development Management Assessment Tool (DMAT)
    • What is DMAT?
    • A mapping tool (methodology) that displays areas of:
    • “most, marginally & least suitable” for development
    • “Unrealized Development Potential”
    • GIS based mapping of “What’s Fixed & What’s Flexible” (with assumptions & criteria of what can be changed and/or modified)
    • Scales
    • County Scale
    • Master Plan Scale
    • Filters
    • Environmental
    • Man-made
    • Qualifiers
    • Helping develop…
    • Scenarios
    • Development priorities
    • Community priorities
    • Environmental priorities
    • Refined county-wide policies
    • MNCPPC
  30. Slide 30

    • h
    • b
    • b
    • Environmental layers
    • Hydrological (streams + wetland buffers)
    • Erodible soils
    • Parks & biodiversity areas
    • Agricultural Reserves
    • Special Protection Areas
    • Forest Conservation Easements
    • Man-made
    • Utility Sites (WSSC, Transmission Lines)
    • Transportation infrastructure (Metro, Rail, Federal Highways, State Roads)
    • Government Ownership
    • Rustic Roads
    • Public Education
    • Historic Preservation
    • Exhausted TDRs + Rockville Quarry
    • Regulated Affordable Housing, Private Institutional, HOA Common Ownership
    • Single Family Dwellings
    • Qualifiers
    • Multiple Owners
    • Improvement value > 2X Land Value
    • Office Buildings less than 50 years old
    • Retail Buildings less than 15 years old
    • Development Management Assessment Map (Tool) (composite)
    • +
    • Methodology
    • MNCPPC
    • =
  31. Environmental Constraints

    Slide 31 - Environmental Constraints

  32. Environmental constraints

    Slide 32 - Environmental constraints

    • Layer
    • Criteria
    • Least suitableBlack, 50% opacity
    • Marginally Suitable20% Gray, 50% opacity
    • Most SuitableNo color
    • Hydrological water areas
    • present
    • -
    • -
    • Streams/wetlands buffer
    • present
    • -
    • -
    • Erodible soils
    • present
    • -
    • -
    • Parks
    • park
    • -
    • -
    • Biodiversity areas
    • biodiversity area
    • Agricultural Reserve
    • present
    • -
    • -
    • Special protection areas
    • -
    • present
    • -
    • Forest conservation easements
    • present
    • -
    • -
    • MNCPPC
  33. Total Land Area = 324,319 Acres

    Slide 33 - Total Land Area = 324,319 Acres

    • MNCPPC
    • Baseline Map
    • A suburban extension of Washington DC
    • (within the National Capital Planning area)
  34. Environmental

    Slide 34 - Environmental

    • Hydrological
    • Streams
    • Wetland Buffers
    • Unbuildable (Federal/State/Local regulations)
    • 21%
    • Area Constrained = 68,816 Acres
    • MNCPPC
    • Environmental constraints
  35. Environmental

    Slide 35 - Environmental

    • Hydrological
    • Streams
    • Wetland Buffers
    • Erodible soils
    • 26%
    • Area Constrained = 85,717 Acres
    • MNCPPC
    • Unbuildable (Federal/State/Local regulations)
    • Environmental constraints
  36. Environmental

    Slide 36 - Environmental

    • Hydrological
    • Streams
    • Wetland Buffers
    • Erodible soils
    • Parks & Biodiversity areas
    • 36%
    • Area Constrained = 117,757 Acres
    • MNCPPC
    • Constrained by designated use & biology
    • Environmental constraints
  37. Environmental

    Slide 37 - Environmental

    • Hydrological
    • Streams
    • Wetland Buffers
    • Erodible soils
    • Parks & Biodiversity areas
    • Agricultural Reserves
    • 56%
    • Area Constrained = 181,834 Acres
    • MNCPPC
    • Constrained by local regulations
    • Environmental constraints
  38. Environmental

    Slide 38 - Environmental

    • Hydrological
    • Streams
    • Wetland Buffers
    • Erodible soils
    • Parks & Biodiversity areas
    • Agricultural Reserves
    • Special Protection Areas
    • 60%
    • Area Constrained = 193,884 Acres
    • MNCPPC
    • Constrained by local regulations
    • Environmental constraints
  39. Environmental

    Slide 39 - Environmental

    • Hydrological
    • Streams
    • Wetland Buffers
    • Erodible soils
    • Parks & Biodiversity areas
    • Agricultural Reserves
    • Special Protection Areas
    • Forest Conservation Easements
    • 60%
    • Area Constrained = 193,884 Acres
    • MNCPPC
    • Constrained by local regulations
    • Environmental constraints
  40. Environmental

    Slide 40 - Environmental

    • Hydrological
    • Streams
    • Wetland Buffers
    • Erodible soils
    • Parks & Biodiversity areas
    • Agricultural Reserves
    • Special Protection Areas
    • Forest Conservation Easements
    • 60%
    • Area Constrained = 193,884 Acres
    • MNCPPC
    • Composite
    • Environmental constraints
  41. Man-made Constraints

    Slide 41 - Man-made Constraints

  42. Man-made constraints

    Slide 42 - Man-made constraints

    • Layer
    • Criteria
    • Least suitableBlack, 50% opacity
    • Marginally Suitable20% Gray, 50% opacity
    • Most SuitableNo color
    • Utility sites and transmission lines
    • utility site present. Minor lines buffered 10 ft., trunk lines buffered 50 ft.
    • -
    • -
    • WSSC Water Mains
    • water main with diameter over 42 inches, buffered 35 ft.
    • -
    • -
    • metro/railroad tracks/yards/sidings
    • present
    • -
    • -
    • state roads and federal highways
    • present. Federal highways buffered 150 ft., state routes buffered 35 ft.
    • -
    • -
    • Government Ownership
    • US Federal Government, State of Maryland
    • US Postal Service, Montgomery County, municipalities
    • -
    • rustic roads
    • present. All rustic roads and exceptional rustic roads buffered 15 ft.
    • -
    • -
    • Public education sites
    • Montgomery College, MCPS
    • -
    • -
    • Historic Preservation Information
    • Master Plan Historic District or Individual Site
    • Locational Atlas Historic District or Individual Resource, National Register Historic Districts or Individual Resource
    • -
    • TDR exhausted
    • # of TDRs remaining is less than or equal to the # of housing units on the property
    • -
    • -
    • Quarry
    • present
    • -
    • -
    • Regulated affordable housing
    • -
    • private and non-profit affordable housing (provided by DHCA), HOC-owned affordable housing
    • -
    • Private institutional
    • -
    • hospitals, churches, swimming pools, private schools
    • -
    • HOA common ownership
    • -
    • HOA common ownership
    • -
    • Land Use - Single Family Detached
    • -
    • present
    • -
    • MNCPPC
  43. Man-made

    Slide 43 - Man-made

    • Utility Sites
    • WSSC
    • Transmission Lines
    • 2%
    • Area Constrained = 6.767 Acres
    • MNCPPC
    • Controlled by external public or private entities
    • Man-made constraints
  44. Man-made

    Slide 44 - Man-made

    • Utility Sites
    • WSSC
    • Transmission Lines
    • Transportation Infrastructure
    • Metro
    • Rail
    • State Roads
    • Federal Highways
    • 4%
    • Area Constrained = 14,020 Acres
    • MNCPPC
    • Controlled by external public or private entities
    • Man-made constraints
  45. Man-made

    Slide 45 - Man-made

    • Utility Sites
    • WSSC
    • Transmission Lines
    • Transportation Infrastructure
    • Metro
    • Rail
    • State Roads
    • Federal Highways
    • Government Ownership
    • 22%
    • Area Constrained = 71,554 Acres
    • MNCPPC
    • Land controlled by public entity (excluding education)
    • Man-made constraints
  46. Man-made

    Slide 46 - Man-made

    • Utility Sites
    • WSSC
    • Transmission Lines
    • Transportation Infrastructure
    • Metro
    • Rail
    • State Roads
    • Federal Highways
    • Government Ownership
    • Rustic Roads
    • 22%
    • Area Constrained = 72,114 Acres
    • MNCPPC
    • Land controlled by local municipalities
    • (including education)
    • Man-made constraints
  47. Man-made

    Slide 47 - Man-made

    • Utility Sites
    • WSSC
    • Transmission Lines
    • Transportation Infrastructure
    • Metro
    • Rail
    • State Roads
    • Federal Highways
    • Government Ownership
    • Rustic Roads
    • Public Education
    • 23%
    • Area Constrained = 75,739 Acres
    • MNCPPC
    • Constrained by use or regulation
    • Man-made constraints
  48. Man-made

    Slide 48 - Man-made

    • Utility Sites
    • WSSC
    • Transmission Lines
    • Transportation Infrastructure
    • Metro
    • Rail
    • State Roads
    • Federal Highways
    • Government Ownership
    • Rustic Roads
    • Public Education
    • Historic Preservation
    • 30%
    • Area Constrained = 98,787 Acres
    • MNCPPC
    • Constrained by use or regulation
    • Man-made constraints
  49. Man-made

    Slide 49 - Man-made

    • Utility Sites
    • WSSC
    • Transmission Lines
    • Transportation Infrastructure
    • Metro
    • Rail
    • State Roads
    • Federal Highways
    • Government Ownership
    • Rustic Roads
    • Public Education
    • Historic Preservation
    • Exhausted TDR’s
    • Rock Quarries
    • 32%
    • Area Constrained = 104,738 Acres
    • MNCPPC
    • Constrained by use or regulation
    • Man-made constraints
  50. Man-made

    Slide 50 - Man-made

    • Utility Sites
    • WSSC
    • Transmission Lines
    • Transportation Infrastructure
    • Metro
    • Rail
    • State Roads
    • Federal Highways
    • Government Ownership
    • Rustic Roads
    • Public Education
    • Historic Preservation
    • Exhausted TDR’s
    • Rock Quarries
    • Regulated Affordable Housing
    • Private Institutional
    • Common HOA Ownerships
    • 34%
    • Area Constrained = 111,049 Acres
    • MNCPPC
    • Constrained by use or regulation
    • Man-made constraints
  51. Man-made

    Slide 51 - Man-made

    • Utility Sites
    • WSSC
    • Transmission Lines
    • Transportation Infrastructure
    • Metro
    • Rail
    • State Roads
    • Federal Highways
    • Government Ownership
    • Rustic Roads
    • Public Education
    • Historic Preservation
    • Exhausted TDR’s
    • Rock Quarries
    • Regulated Affordable Housing
    • Private Institutional
    • Common HOA Ownerships
    • Single Family Dwellings
    • 62%
    • Area Constrained = 201,154 Acres
    • MNCPPC
    • Politically sensitive
    • Man-made constraints
  52. Man-made

    Slide 52 - Man-made

    • Utility Sites
    • WSSC
    • Transmission Lines
    • Transportation Infrastructure
    • Metro
    • Rail
    • State Roads
    • Federal Highways
    • Government Ownership
    • Rustic Roads
    • Public Education
    • Historic Preservation
    • Exhausted TDR’s
    • Rock Quarries
    • Regulated Affordable Housing
    • Private Institutional
    • Common HOA Ownerships
    • Single Family Dwellings
    • 62%
    • Area Constrained = 201,154 Acres
    • MNCPPC
    • Composite
    • Man-made constraints
  53. Environmental

    Slide 53 - Environmental

    • Hydrological
    • Streams
    • Wetland Buffers
    • Erodible soils
    • Parks & Biodiversity areas
    • Agricultural Reserves
    • Special Protection Areas
    • Forest Conservation Easements
    • =
    • =
    • Environmental + man-made constraints
    • Man-made
    • Utility Sites
    • WSSC
    • Transmission Lines
    • Transportation Infrastructure
    • Metro
    • Rail
    • State Roads
    • Federal Highways
    • Government Ownership
    • Rustic Roads
    • Public Education
    • Historic Preservation
    • Exhausted TDR’s
    • Rock Quarries
    • Regulated Affordable Housing
    • Private Institutional
    • Common HOA Ownerships
    • Single Family Dwellings
    • MNCPPC
    • +
  54. Environmental

    Slide 54 - Environmental

    • Hydrological
    • Streams
    • Wetland Buffers
    • Erodible soils
    • Parks & Biodiversity areas
    • Agricultural Reserves
    • Special Protection Areas
    • Forest Conservation Easements
    • Environmental + man-made constraints
    • 81%
    • Area Constrained area = 263,260 Acres
    • Unconstrained area = 61,059 Acres
    • 19%
    • MNCPPC
    • Man-made
    • Utility Sites
    • WSSC
    • Transmission Lines
    • Transportation Infrastructure
    • Metro
    • Rail
    • State Roads
    • Federal Highways
    • Government Ownership
    • Rustic Roads
    • Public Education
    • Historic Preservation
    • Exhausted TDR’s
    • Rock Quarries
    • Regulated Affordable Housing
    • Private Institutional
    • Common HOA Ownerships
    • Single Family Dwellings
  55. What’s left?

    Slide 55 - What’s left?

  56. Development suitability ranking

    Slide 56 - Development suitability ranking

    • Man-Made
    • Suitability for Development
    • Opportunity & Constraint Factors
    • Least Suitable
    • Potentially Suitable
    • Most Suitable
    • Multiple Owners
    • Improvement Value > 2X Land Value
    • Office buildings less than 50 years old
    • Retail buildings less than 15 years old
    • Qualifiers
    • MNCPPC
  57. Composite + Qualifiers

    Slide 57 - Composite + Qualifiers

    • Qualifiers
    • Multiple owners
    • Improvement Value >2 Land Value
    • Office Buildings less than 50 years old
    • Retail Buildings less than 15 years old
    • Environmental
    • Hydrological
    • Streams
    • Wetland Buffers
    • Erodible soils
    • Parks & Biodiversity areas
    • Agricultural Reserves
    • Special Protection Areas
    • Forest Conservation Easements
    • Man-made
    • Utility Sites
    • WSSC
    • Transmission Lines
    • Transportation Infrastructure
    • Metro
    • Rail
    • State Roads
    • Federal Highways
    • Government Ownership
    • Rustic Roads & Public Education
    • Historic Preservation
    • TDR Exhausted
    • Rockville Quarry
    • Regulated Affordable Housing,
    • Private Institutional
    • HOA Common Ownership
    • Single Family Dwellings
    • 85%
    • Constrained area = 276,515 Acres
    • Unconstrained area = 47,804 Acres 15%
    • MNCPPC
  58. Applications

    Slide 58 - Applications

  59. Managing the planning program

    Slide 59 - Managing the planning program

    • Align infrastructure with development potential
    • Create a better basis for where and when planning should happen
    • Proposed county wide rapid bus transit corridors
    • MNCPPC
  60. Managing the planning program

    Slide 60 - Managing the planning program

    • White Flint
    • Aspen Hill
    • White Oak
    • Priority master plan or study areas
    • MNCPPC
    • Priority Areas?
    • Ensure an objective & comprehensive basis for an ongoing planning work program
    • Setting & refining agency planning priorities
  61. Managing the planning program

    Slide 61 - Managing the planning program

    • Priority Areas?
    • White Flint
    • Aspen Hill
    • White Oak
    • Priority master plan or study areas
    • MNCPPC
    • Ensure an objective & comprehensive basis for an ongoing planning work program
    • Setting & refining agency planning priorities
  62. Qualifiers

    Slide 62 - Qualifiers

    • Multiple owners
    • Improvement Value >2 Land Value
    • Office Buildings less than 50 years old
    • Retail Buildings less than 15 years old
    • Environmental
    • Hydrological
    • Streams
    • Wetland Buffers
    • Erodible soils
    • Parks & Biodiversity areas
    • Agricultural Reserves
    • Special Protection Areas
    • Forest Conservation Easements
    • Man-made
    • Utility Sites
    • WSSC
    • Transmission Lines
    • Transportation Infrastructure
    • Metro
    • Rail
    • State Roads
    • Federal Highways
    • Government Ownership
    • Rustic Roads & Public Education
    • Historic Preservation
    • TDR Exhausted
    • Rockville Quarry
    • Regulated Affordable Housing,
    • Private Institutional
    • HOA Common Ownership
    • Single Family Dwellings
    • Informing local master plans
    • Outpubt from DMAT
    • MNCPPC
    • Central Wheaton
  63. Current Zoning

    Slide 63 - Current Zoning

    • Informing local master plans
    • MNCPPC
    • Output from DMAT
    • Current Zoning
    • Merged DMAT Assessment
    • +
    • Central Wheaton
    • Current zoning evaluation
    • Existing development capacity
    • Incentives determination
    • Entitlement Assessment
  64. Assessing request vs. potential

    Slide 64 - Assessing request vs. potential

    • Newell Street Minor
    • Area asking for a minor master plan amendment
    • DMAT Assessment
    • The applicant’s proposed project is not constrained
    • MNCPPC
    • An objective basis for evaluation
    • A good way to obtain uniqueness
    • Evaluating minor master plans
  65. Assessing request vs. potential

    Slide 65 - Assessing request vs. potential

    • Area asking for a minor master plan amendment
    • DMAT Assessment
    • The applicant’s proposed project is constrained
    • Vitro Site Minor
    • MNCPPC
    • An objective basis for evaluation
    • A good way to obtain uniqueness
    • Evaluating minor master plans
  66. Assessing request vs. potential

    Slide 66 - Assessing request vs. potential

    • Area asking for a minor master plan amendment
    • DMAT Assessment
    • The applicant’s proposed project is partially constrained
    • Halpine Minor
    • MNCPPC
    • An objective basis for evaluation
    • A good way to obtain uniqueness
    • Evaluating minor master plans
  67. Helps establish planning agency priorities in:

    Slide 67 - Helps establish planning agency priorities in:

    • Scheduling and timing of Master Plans
    • Budgeting annual growth forecasts
    • Provides a good reality check by:
    • Verifying where change is possible (likely “playing field”)
    • Confirming areas likely to experience the most change
    • Supports better flexibility & adaptability by:
    • Providing a clear basis for scenario generation
    • Helping identify development trade-offs between plan areas
    • Better community processes through:
    • More focused debate
    • Informed choices by leadership and stakeholders
    • DMAT as a decision support tool
    • MNCPPC
  68. 5

    Slide 68 - 5

    • The Big Picture
  69. Rethink your planning process

    Slide 69 - Rethink your planning process

    • Understand the nature and type of the problem first
    • Encourage thoughtful dialogue through shared knowledge
    • Understand the limits of every methodology & tool
    • Use data wisely (not all data is useful or needed, think granularity!)
    • Find ways to cover the gaps and inconsistencies
    • Design methods and processes that can be improved over time
    • Be explicit about your assumptions
    • Be objective & fair
    • Create a situation where the trade-offs can be discussed
    • Do not let pre-conceived solutions drive the problem
    • New tools for contemporary needs
  70. Ask yourself…

    Slide 70 - Ask yourself…

    • If we have to stop, will we have a disaster?
    • But, if we continue will we have a bigger one?
    • Does improvement always have to be about growth?
    • Is your solution driving the problem?
    • Planning for Risk & Uncertainty
  71. Arun Jain, Urban Designer, Urban Strategist

    Slide 71 - Arun Jain, Urban Designer, Urban Strategist

    • info@urbdesign.net
    • Comments & further queries welcome…
    • KLIMATGIS – Dagen 2015New Methods in Planning for Uncertainty & Risk in Urban SettingsA GIS based decision support methodologyJanuary 20, 2015 Stockholm, Sweden